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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (November 20) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for October 2008. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 1.8% in October 2008 over a year earlier.
The year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs in October 2008 were affected by various Government's one-off relief measures, in particular the Government's payment of three month's public housing rentals, the implementation of electricity charge subsidy and the rates concession.
Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI in October 2008 (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) was 5.9%, smaller than that in September (6.1%), due mainly to the smaller increase in the cost of meals bought away from home, and the decreases in price of motor fuel and basic electricity charges.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of change in the headline CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -1.7%, 2.8% and 4.3% respectively in October 2008, which compared to -0.3%, 4.0% and 5.4% respectively in September. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 6.0%, 6.0% and 5.9% in October 2008 respectively, which compared to 6.1% for all in September. The larger difference between the change in headline and underlying CPI(A) reflected that the Government's one-off relief measures, in particular the Government's payment of three month's public housing rentals and the rates concession, had larger impacts on the lower expenditure households.
For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. For the 3-month period from August to October 2008, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -0.8%, -1.9%, -0.5% and 0.1% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from July to September 2008 were -0.7%, -1.9%, -0.4% and 0.2%. However, it should be noted that these rates of change were affected by Government's one-off relief measures implemented only in some months. Netting out these effects, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from August to October 2008 were 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and for the 3-month period from July to September 2008 were 0.3%, 0.1%, 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, large year-on-year increase in prices was recorded in October 2008 for food (excluding meals bought away from home) (14.9% in the Composite CPI and 16.0% in the CPI(A)). Food items showing large price increases were rice (55.1% in the Composite CPI as compared with a year earlier); beef (28.0%); fresh-water fish (27.3%); canned meat (26.5%); poultry (23.3%); edible oils (23.2%); and pork (20.1%).
Apart from food (excluding meals bought away from home), year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in October 2008 for meals bought away from home (5.9% in the Composite CPI and 6.0% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (5.8% in the Composite CPI and 6.4% in the CPI(A)) and transport (3.0% in the Composite CPI and 2.0% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, large year-on-year decline in prices was recorded in October 2008 for electricity, gas and water (-32.3% in the Composite CPI and -37.6% in the CPI(A)), largely as a result of the Government's electricity charge subsidy. Declines were also recorded for alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-1.0% and -0.4%), housing (-0.8% and -11.7%) and durable goods (-0.8% and -1.4%).
As for miscellaneous services, the Composite CPI rose by 0.3% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) fell by 2.5%. Affected by the difference in expenditure patterns, the implementation of the free senior secondary education had larger impacts on the CPI(A), thus leading to different movements in the two CPIs.
As for clothing and footwear, the Composite CPI fell by 0.6% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) rose by 0.5%.
Taking the first ten months of 2008 together, the Composite CPI rose by 4.6% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 4.0%, 4.9% and 5.0%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 5.7%, 5.7%, 5.8% and 5.5% respectively in the first ten months of 2008 over a year earlier.
For the 3 months ended October 2008, the Composite CPI rose by 3.1% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 0.1%, 4.1% and 5.2% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 6.1%, 6.2%, 6.1% and 6.0% respectively.
For the 12 months ended October 2008, the Composite CPI was on average 4.5% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.9%, 4.7% and 4.8%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 5.3%, 5.3%, 5.4% and 5.3% respectively.
Starting from October 2008, the seasonal adjustment of the CPI is compiled by the X-12 ARIMA method to replace the previous X-11 ARIMA method. The seasonally adjusted CPI series since October 2005 have also been revised using the new method. X-12 ARIMA method is an update to the X-11 ARIMA method with enhanced modelling and diagnostic capabilities. The X-12 ARIMA method has now been a standard method used by statistical offices for performing seasonal adjustment of statistical series in many countries/territories.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that the headline consumer price inflation notched down notably in October, largely on account of the mitigating effects of the Government's relief measures. Underlying inflation also edged lower, thanks to the tapering of food and energy price inflation.
The spokesman added that, looking ahead, with the international commodity prices retreating and US dollar strengthening, inflationary pressures from the external front are receding. These factors, coupled with the slowdown in domestic demand and Government's relief measures, should be conducive to progressive easing in inflation going forward.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for October 2008 are shown in Table 1. The time series of movements of CPIs and the corresponding year-on-year rates of change upon removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. The corresponding time series for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
Users can download the October 2008 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$49 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk
Ends/Thursday, November 20, 2008
Issued at HKT 16:30
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