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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (August 21) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for July 2008. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 6.3% in July 2008 over a year earlier.
The year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI in July 2008 was not subject to the effect of one-off government measures, as the same relief measure of rates concession was implemented in both July 2007 and July 2008. Therefore, the underlying inflation rate in July 2008 (i.e. the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI with the effect of rates concession discounted) was also 6.3%.
The underlying inflation rate in July 2008 (6.3%) was higher than that in June 2008 (6.1%), mainly due to the enlarged increases in the price of fresh vegetables and private housing rentals.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in both the headline and underlying CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 6.4%, 6.5% and 6.1% respectively in July 2008, which compared to the corresponding rates of 6.1%, 6.3% and 5.8% in June.
For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. For the 3-month period from May to July 2008, the average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were all 0.6%. The corresponding rates of increase for the 3-month period from April to June 2008 were all 0.5%. Netting out the one-off effect of the rates concession, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from May to July 2008 were all 0.6%, and for the 3-month period from April to June 2008 were 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, large year-on-year increase in prices was recorded for food (excluding meals bought away from home) (19.7% in the Composite CPI and 21.5% in the CPI(A)) in July 2008. Food items showing large price increases were rice (66.3% in the Composite CPI as compared with a year earlier); beef (45.6%); canned meat (39.3%); fresh-water fish (34.1%); edible oils (32.8%); pork (32.2%); fresh vegetables (28.3%) and other meat (23.0%).
Apart from food (excluding meals bought away from home), year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in July 2008 for electricity, gas and water (7.9% in the Composite CPI and 8.1% in the CPI(A)); housing (6.7% in the Composite CPI and 3.6% in the CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (6.6% in the Composite CPI and 6.8% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (5.7% in the Composite CPI and 6.4% in the CPI(A)); transport (3.9% in the Composite CPI and 2.2% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (1.4% in the Composite CPI and 4.2% in the CPI(A)) and alcoholic drinks and tobacco (1.3% in the Composite CPI and 2.0% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year decline in prices was recorded in July 2008 for durable goods (-1.0% in the Composite CPI and -1.7% in the CPI(A)).
As for miscellaneous services, the Composite CPI rose by 1.3% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) fell by 0.7%. As affected by the difference in expenditure patterns, implementation of the Pre-primary Education Voucher Scheme had smaller impact on the Composite CPI than on CPI(A), thus leading to different movements in the two CPIs.
Taking the first seven months of 2008 together, the Composite CPI rose by 5.3% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.7%, 5.3% and 4.9%. Netting out the effects of various one-off measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 5.5%, 5.5%, 5.6% and 5.3% respectively in the first seven months of 2008 over a year earlier.
For the 3 months ended July 2008, the Composite CPI rose by 6.0% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 6.0%, 6.2% and 5.8% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of various one-off measures were 6.0%, 6.0%, 6.2% and 5.8% respectively.
For the 12 months ended July 2008, the Composite CPI was on average 4.2% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 4.2%, 4.3% and 4.2%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of various one-off measures were 4.5%, 4.3%, 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that consumer price inflation edged up further in July, mainly due to the sustained increase in food prices and the faster increase in private housing rents.
The spokesman added that the inflation outlook for the rest of the year is rather uncertain. Although food and energy prices in the international markets have eased somewhat more recently, they remain elevated compared with a year earlier. Also, the earlier surges in private housing rents would increasingly be reflected in the consumer price inflation in the coming months. Nevertheless, the improvement in labour productivity and the expected moderation in the rate of economic growth in the period ahead should provide some alleviation effect. In addition, the relief measures announced in the 2008-09 Budget and by the Chief Executive in July would help to lower the headline inflation notably in the latter part of 2008.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for July 2008 are shown in Table 1. The time series of movements of CPIs and the corresponding year-on-year rates of change upon removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. The corresponding time series for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
Users can download the July 2008 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$49 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Thursday, August 21, 2008
Issued at HKT 16:15
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