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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (June 20) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May 2008. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 5.7% in May 2008 over a year earlier.
The year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI in May 2008 was not subject to the effect of one-off government measures, as the same relief measure of rates concession was implemented in both May 2007 and May 2008. Therefore, the underlying inflation rate in May 2008 (i.e. the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI with the effect of rates concession discounted) was also 5.7%.
The underlying inflation rate in May 2008 (5.7%) was higher than that in April 2008 (5.4%), mainly due to the enlarged increases in private housing rentals, charges for package tours and cost of meals bought away from home.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the headline CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.6%, 5.8% and 5.5% respectively in May 2008, which compared to 5.5%, 5.5% and 5.2% respectively in April. Netting out the effect of the rates concession, the year-on-year increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.6%, 5.8% and 5.6% respectively in May 2008, which compared to 5.5%, 5.5% and 5.3% respectively in April.
For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. For the 3-month period from March to May 2008, the average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were all 0.3%. The corresponding rates of increase for the 3-month period from February to April 2008 were all 0.6%. However, it should be noted that these rates of change were slightly affected by the waiver of public housing rentals by the Housing Society for the month of February 2008. Netting out the effect of such one-off measure, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from March to May 2008 were all 0.3%, and for the 3-month period from February to April 2008 were 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, large year-on-year increase in prices was recorded for food (excluding meals bought away from home) (19.2% in the Composite CPI and 20.9% in the CPI(A)) in May 2008. Food items showing large price increases were pork (56.8% in the Composite CPI as compared with a year earlier); beef (50.0%); canned meat (45.7%); rice (39.9%); edible oils (36.0%); other meat (30.5%) and fresh-water fish (23.0%).
Apart from food (excluding meals bought away from home), year-on-year increases in prices were recorded for electricity, gas and water (6.9% in the Composite CPI and 7.0% in the CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (6.4% in the Composite CPI and 6.7% in the CPI(A)); housing (6.0% in the Composite CPI and 2.7% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (5.1% in the Composite CPI and 5.8% in the CPI(A)); transport (2.0% in the Composite CPI and 0.1% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (1.9% in the Composite CPI and 4.4% in the CPI(A)) and alcoholic drinks and tobacco (0.5% in the Composite CPI and 1.2% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year decline in prices was recorded in May 2008 for durable goods (-1.9% in the Composite CPI and -2.5% in the CPI(A)).
As for miscellaneous services, the Composite CPI rose by 1.2% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) fell by 0.7%. As affected by the difference in expenditure patterns, implementation of the Pre-primary Education Voucher Scheme had smaller impact on the Composite CPI than on CPI(A), thus leading to different movements in the two CPIs.
Taking the first five months of 2008 together, the Composite CPI rose by 4.9% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.5%, 4.9% and 4.5%. Netting out the effects of various one-off measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 5.2%, 5.1%, 5.3% and 5.0% respectively in the first five months of 2008 over a year earlier.
For the 3 months ended May 2008, the Composite CPI rose by 5.1% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 5.0%, 5.2% and 5.1% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of various one-off measures were 5.4%, 5.4%, 5.6% and 5.4% respectively.
For the 12 months ended May 2008, the Composite CPI was on average 3.4% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.3%, 3.5% and 3.5%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of various one-off measures were 3.9%, 3.7%, 4.0% and 4.0% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that consumer price inflation edged up further in May. The prices of basic foodstuffs, which contributed to the uptrend of inflation in the past months, showed signs of levelling out in May. On the other hand, the sustained above-trend growth of the local economy has resulted in higher inflationary pressure from the demand side as reflected in higher rental costs and prices of various goods and services.
The spokesman added that the inflation outlook is rather uncertain, due to volatile global food prices and the pick-up of domestically generated inflationary pressure. Nevertheless, the sustained labour productivity growth should help provide some cushioning effect to inflation. The various relief measures announced in the 2008-09 Budget would also help to lower the headline inflation in the latter part of 2008.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for May 2008 are shown in Table 1. The time series of movements of CPIs and the corresponding year-on-year rates of change upon removing the effect of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. The corresponding time series for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
Users can download the May 2008 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$49 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk
Ends/Friday, June 20, 2008
Issued at HKT 16:15
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