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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (November 22) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for October 2007. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 3.2% in October 2007 over a year earlier.
The 3.2% year-on-year increase in October 2007 was larger than the 1.6% increase in the overall Composite CPI in September 2007. The year-on-year increase in the Composite CPI was 2.7% in September after netting out the effect of the Budget measure of rates concession for the first two quarters of 2007/08 (i.e. April to September 2007).
The larger increase in the Composite CPI in October 2007 (3.2%) than the underlying inflation of 2.7% in September was due mainly to the enlarged increase in prices of basic foodstuffs, cost of meals bought away from home, fuel cost variation charge for towngas and prices of motor fuel, as well as private housing rentals.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.9%, 3.2% and 3.5% respectively in October 2007, which compared to 1.0%, 1.8% and 2.2% respectively in September. Netting out the effect of rates concession, the year-on-year increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.4%, 2.8% and 3.0% respectively in September.
For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. For the 3-month period ended October 2007, the average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were all 0.6%. The corresponding rates of increase for the 3-month period ended September 2007 were 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.3% and 0.3%.
Amongst the various CPI components, large year-on-year increase in prices was recorded for food (excluding meals bought away from home) (11.9% in the Composite CPI and 13.1% in the CPI(A)) in October 2007. Food items showing large price increases were beef (31.3% in the Composite CPI as compared with a year earlier); eggs (30.6%); canned meat (29.3%); pork (28.3%); salt-water fish (19.0%); frozen meat (17.2%); fresh vegetables (16.5%); poultry (14.9%) and other meat (15.8%).
Apart from food (excluding meals bought away from home), year-on-year increases in prices were recorded for housing (4.1% in the Composite CPI and 1.9% in the CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (3.4% in the Composite CPI and 3.2% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (2.6% in the Composite CPI and 2.8% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (2.1% in the Composite CPI and 0.9% in the CPI(A)); electricity, gas and water (1.5% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)); transport (0.6% in the Composite CPI and 0.3% in the CPI(A)) and alcoholic drinks and tobacco (0.4% in the Composite CPI and 1.4% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year declines in prices were recorded in October 2007 for durable goods (-4.4% in the Composite CPI and -4.6% in the CPI(A)).
As for miscellaneous services, the Composite CPI rose by 0.5% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) fell by 1.5%. Affected by the difference in expenditure patterns, implementation of the Pre-primary Education Voucher Scheme had smaller impact on the Composite CPI than on CPI(A), and the increase in charges for package tours had larger impact on the Composite CPI than on CPI(A), thus leading to different movements in the two CPIs.
Taking the first ten months of 2007 together, the Composite CPI rose by 1.7% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.9%, 1.8% and 2.4%. Netting out the effect of the one-off measures of public housing rental waiver in February this year and the rates concession, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 2.6%, 2.3%, 2.6% and 2.9% respectively in the first ten months of 2007 over a year earlier.
For the 3 months ended October 2007, the Composite CPI rose by 2.2% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 1.5%, 2.2% and 2.7% respectively.
For the 12 months ended October 2007, the Composite CPI was on average 1.8% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 1.0%, 1.9% and 2.5%.
Commentary
A Government spokesman pointed out that the dissipation of the favourable effect of the rates concession in October and the pick-up in underlying consumer price inflation from 2.7% in September to 3.2% in October had been fully factored into account in the 2% inflation forecast for 2007 as a whole as announced by the Government on November 16.
The spokesman added that with the overall economic situation staying robust for four years, inflation had been on a slowly rising trend. There had been additional pressures from higher food prices and oil prices, the weakening of the US dollar and the appreciation of renminbi. These developments as well as the recent pick-up in flat rentals would continue to pose upside risks to inflation. Nevertheless, the sustained growth in labour productivity should still provide an alleviating effect.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for October 2007 are shown in Table 1. The time series of movements of CPIs and the corresponding year-on-year rates of change upon removing the effect of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
Users can download the October 2007 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the Website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$49 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Thursday, November 22, 2007
Issued at HKT 16:16
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