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The Hong Kong population is expected to reach 8.57 million in 30 years¡¦ time under an updated set of population projections, released by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) today (July 16).
Following the release of the results of the 2006 Population By-census, an updated set of population projections, covering the coming 30 years, has been prepared.
The Commissioner for Census and Statistics, Mr Fung Hing-wang said: ¡§Population projections provide a common basis for the Government in planning public services and facilities. They are constantly rolled forward and updated to take advantage of information on latest developments of the population.¡¨
In the updated set of projections, the Hong Kong Resident Population is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.7%, from 6.86 million in mid-2006 to 8.57 million in mid-2036. The annual growth rate will remain relatively stable at about 0.7% ¡V 0.9% for the next 20 years. Yet with an increased number of deaths upon ageing of the population, the annual growth rate is expected to slacken to 0.4% towards the end of the projection period.
Over the entire period from mid-2006 to mid-2036, the overall population is projected to increase by 1.71 million. There is a natural increase (i.e. births less deaths) of 0.49 million and a net movement (i.e. inflow less outflow) of 1.22 million.
Within the Hong Kong Resident Population, the number of Usual Residents is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.7% from 6.64 million in mid-2006 to 8.14 million in mid-2036, and the number of Mobile Residents at a faster rate of 2.2% from 218 800 to 426 300. This is mainly related to the increasing trend of Hong Kong residents working and staying for more of their time in the Mainland, along with closer economic ties between the two places.
¡§The population is expected to remain on an ageing trend. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to rise markedly, from 12% in 2006 to 26% in 2036, though the rise will be gradual up to around 2016 (when the proportion will reach 15%) and will be at a much faster pace thereafter. Meanwhile, the proportion of the population aged under 15 will decrease gradually from 14% in 2006 to 12% by the end of the projection period,¡¨ Mr Fung said.
The ageing trend is also revealed by the increasing median age of the population, from 39.6 in 2006 to 46.1 in 2036.
The sex ratio (i.e. the number of males per 1 000 females) of the population is projected to fall noticeably, from 912 in 2006 to 709 in 2036. There will be variations in the sex ratio by age group. In particular, the sex ratio for the age group 25¡V44 is expected to be much affected by the presence of foreign domestic helpers comprising mostly younger females. Also relevant is the continued entry of One way Permit Holders in the coming years, many being Hong Kong men¡¦s wives living in the Mainland. Making reference to data which exclude foreign domestic helpers, the sex ratio of the population is higher, but still will come down from 971 in 2006 to 763 in 2036.
Significant characteristics of the population for selected years are shown in Table 1 and the components of population growth are shown in Table 2.
The ¡§component method¡¨, which is commonly used internationally, is adopted for making the population projections. Under this method, the population of a base year is brought forward by age and sex under separate projections of fertility, mortality and movement, year after year until the end of the projection period. In this round of population projections, births born in Hong Kong to Mainland women and their intention of having their children to stay in Hong Kong have been taken into account.
"Statistical studies using modelling methods as far as possible are made on the past trends and recent developments pertaining to the socio-economic conditions in Hong Kong to generate the fertility, mortality and movement assumptions,¡¨ Mr Fung said.
"Where government policies are involved, it is taken that existing policies will continue to apply. For example, the existing policy of a daily quota of 150 One-way Permit Holders entering Hong Kong from the mainland of China is taken to apply in the projection period,¡¨ Mr Fung added.
A publication ¡§Hong Kong Population Projections 2007¡V2036¡¨ on the detailed projection results, along with the projection methodology and assumptions, is now available for sale.
Another publication ¡§Hong Kong Life Tables 2001¡V2036¡¨ describing the present and future mortality conditions of Hong Kong in the form of life tables is also available for sale as from today. Apart from presenting the life tables, the publication also describes the method of constructing a life table.
Users can download the above publications free of charge at the Website of the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp).
Print version of the publications are available for sale, ¡§Hong Kong Population Projections 2007¡V2036¡¨ at HK$50 per issue and ¡§Hong Kong Life Tables 2001¡V2036¡¨ at HK$48 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD¡¦s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print versions of the publications are also available for sale online at the Statistical Bookstore (www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk) and the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk). Print versions if purchased online are offered a discount, at 85% of their original prices.
Enquiries on more detailed statistics can be directed to the Demographic Statistics Section, Census and Statistics Department (Tel: 2716 8044 or e-mail: population@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Monday, July 16, 2007
Issued at HKT 15:29
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