Press Release

 

 

Speech by the Commissioner for Census & Statistics

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Following is the speech delivered by the Commissioner for Census and Statistics, Mr Frederick WH Ho, introducing the revised method of compiling population figures of Hong Kong today (August 11):

Ladies and gentlemen,

(I) Introduction

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1. The ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland have become closer and closer over the past few years. The residency and mobility patterns of Hong Kong people are also undergoing changes as a result. In response to the change in the population situation, the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) has conducted in-depth research and review on the method of compiling the population figures and has decided to introduce some technical revisions.

(II) Current method of compiling population figures

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2. All along, we have been using the so-called "extended de facto" method to compile population figures. Under the "de facto" concept, the population includes all persons who are in Hong Kong at the reference time-point. They include Hong Kong Permanent Residents, Hong Kong Non-permanent Residents and visitors. "Extended" relates to the fact that for a Hong Kong Permanent Resident, he/she will still be counted as part of the Hong Kong population if, at the reference time-point, he/she is not in Hong Kong but in the Mainland or Macau. The application of the "extended" compilation method is intended to avoid fluctuations in the "de facto" population figure around major public holidays when the movement of people between Hong Kong and Mainland/Macau is enormous. And in the past, most such departures to Mainland/Macau were of a temporary nature.

(III) Limitations of the "extended de facto" method

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3. Since the residency and mobility patterns of the Hong Kong population are undergoing change, the "extended de facto" method has gradually lost its applicability. The main reasons are :

(a) The trend for Hong Kong Permanent Residents to stay in the Mainland or Macau on a long-term basis for reasons of retirement, work or marriage is on the increase. Also, a considerable number of Hong Kong residents are overseas for work, touring or studies. Applying the "de facto" method would lead to fluctuations in the population figures and limits its ability to reflect the actual situation.

(b) According to the definition of "de facto" population, visitors to Hong Kong are included in the Hong Kong Population. But strictly speaking, visitors are not part of the Hong Kong Population.

(c) The existing compilation method makes use of the difference between the number of arrivals and the number of departures. As those numbers are large, their difference may not be stable at times, especially during the commonly used reference time-points, e.g. end-June and end-December.

(IV) Advantages of changing over to the "resident population" method for compiling population figures

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4. In the early days, many countries and territories applied the "de facto" method for compiling population figures. The main reason is that the compilation procedure is simple and the required data are easier to obtain. With statistical development and advancement, advanced countries and territories have gradually changed over to using the "resident population" method.

5. In changing over to using the "resident population" method in compiling population figures for Hong Kong, the following considerations are relevant:

(a) The residency and mobility patterns of the Hong Kong Population

Recent studies, such as the special topic enquiries of the General Household Survey conducted by the C&SD and the survey on cross-boundary travel conducted by the Planning Department, have shown that there have been notable changes in the residency and mobility patterns of the Hong Kong Population. The application of the "resident population" method could better reflect the actual situation.

(b) International trend

Many countries and territories have changed over from the "de facto" method to the "resident population" method in compiling population figures. Notable examples are USA, Canada, UK, Germany, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. Hong Kong should also follow this international trend.

(c) Statistical conceptualization

Using the "resident population" concept to measure the population size of a place is actually more relevant from the statistical theory stand point. Its previous non-application was mainly due to limitations of insufficient data. Also, in compiling statistical indicators (e.g. birth rate and death rate), the use of the "resident population" concept is generally more meaningful.

(d) Development of information technology

The computational capabilities of computers now available have enhanced significantly. Large volumes of anonymized passenger movement data can be handled thus enabling the computation of "resident population" figures at the reference time-point.

(V) Revising the method for compiling population figures

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6. Concluding from the results of relevant studies, we consider that Hong Kong has met the necessary requirements of applying a compilation method which is based on the concept of "resident population". In doing so, Hong Kong will get closer to other advanced economies in terms of statistical practice. "Resident population" is a clear-cut concept in international statistical standard, but the practical definitions adopted vary from place to place, as the residency and mobility patterns unique to each place needs to be given adequate consideration. The Statistical Division of the United Nations and other related international statistical organizations have pointed out in particular that, owing to business and social development, the "mobility" of residents of certain countries/territories is rather high. In handling the population statistics of these countries/territories, the appropriate authorities should consider the situation in depth. In the case of Hong Kong, our studies show that the "resident population" of Hong Kong (which we refer to as the "Hong Kong Resident Population") should be defined to include "Usual Residents" and "Mobile Residents".

7. In consideration of issues relating to concepts and availability of data, the technical definition of the "Usual Residents" would include two categories of people: (1) Hong Kong Permanent Residents who have stayed in Hong Kong for at least three months during the six months before or for at least three months during the six months after the reference time-point, regardless of whether they are in Hong Kong or not at the reference time-point; and (2) Hong Kong Non-permanent Residents who are in Hong Kong at the reference time-point.

8. As for "Mobile Residents", they are Hong Kong Permanent Residents who have stayed in Hong Kong for at least one month but less than three months during the six months before or for at least one month but less than three months during the six months after the reference time-point, regardless of whether they are in Hong Kong or not at the reference time-point.

9. The amount of time of stay in Hong Kong of "Mobile Residents" is less than that of the "Usual Residents". Nevertheless, the "Mobile Residents" have a close link with Hong Kong and most probably they have a regular residence in Hong Kong and utilize much of Hong Kong's facilities and services. In this regard, they should be considered part of the Hong Kong Population.

10. Let me elaborate a bit on the different situations of different Mobile Residents:

(1) Persons staying 5 to 6 days each week in the Mainland and staying regularly in Hong Kong during the weekends. As at end-1999, there were some 56 000 such persons. They are mainly those working in the Mainland and return to Hong Kong to stay during the weekends with families.

(2) Persons staying for a major proportion of time in Mainland/Macau and returning to Hong Kong from time to time. There were some 72 000 such persons at end-1999. Presumably they maintain residences in both Mainland/Macau and Hong Kong, and travel frequently between the places for business, work or family reasons.

(3) Elderly persons (60 or over) staying for a major proportion of time in Mainland/Macau. There were some 7 000 such persons. Many of these have retired and settled in the Mainland but come back to Hong Kong frequently to visit children or relatives.

(4) Persons in school-attending age returning from overseas to stay in Hong Kong for several periods of time in a year. There were some 21 000 such persons. These are mainly Hong Kong students studying abroad and spending their vacations in Hong Kong.

(5) Besides, there are persons staying in overseas countries/ territories but also staying frequently in Hong Kong for business, work or family reasons. There were some 32 000 such persons.

11. As at end-1999, there were a total of 188 000 "Mobile Residents". The above figures have been obtained through statistical processing of anonymized passenger movement data. The compilation procedures are conducted through computer processing, with all the personal data being anonymous and the identities kept strictly confidential.

(VI) Comparison of the old and the new population figures

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12. On the basis of the new method for compiling population figures, the "Hong Kong Resident Population" as at end-1999 is 6.76 million, which is less than the previously released "extended de facto" population by 0.21 million (i.e. 3%). However, one should note that the previously released figure (6.97 million) includes 0.14 million visitors, who are excluded in the figure of "Hong Kong Resident Population".

13. The attached table presents the population figures from 1996 to 1999, using the old and the new methods. Since the required data are not available for earlier dates, the figures of "Hong Kong Resident Population" in the statistical series are only provided in respect of reference time-points from 1996 onwards.

(VII) Implications of the application of the revised compilation method for the Government's planning work

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14. Replacing application of the "de facto" method by the "resident population" method for compiling population figures is a technical revision. It may be noticed that the changes in the figures are not very large. In the short run, the revised series of population figures will not have significant effect on the planning of public services. In the long run, as the revised series will better reflect the actual situation of the Hong Kong Population and provide richer information on the residency and mobility patterns, they will contribute better to government's long term planning work.

(VIII) Implications of the application of the revised compilation method for labour statistics

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15. As regards labour statistics, the unemployment and underemployment rates are not affected at all by the change in method for compiling population figures. As for the size of the labour force and the number of employed, unemployed and underemployed persons, there are slight adjustments downwards (e.g. taking the number of unemployed persons as 180 000, the downward adjustment is about 9 000).

(IX) Release of population figures

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16. The application of the "resident population" method requires information on the amount of time of stay in Hong Kong of residents during the six months before and after the reference time-point. It follows that the population figures could not be obtained within one or two months after the reference time-point. In order to provide relevant figures as early as possible for use, the C&SD will release "preliminary figures" for reference within two months after the reference time-point. Revised figures will be released a further six months later.

17. That is to say, population figures will be released every half-year, for the mid-year and year-end positions, by way of press release as in the past. To provide a concrete example, the preliminary figures for mid-2000 will be released on 22 August 2000, while the revised figures will be released in mid-February 2001.

(X) Population projections

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18. With the new method for compiling population figures in place, our next step will be to compile population projections for the future. These figures will be released in a few months.

(XI) Concluding remarks

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19. The degree of difficulty in compiling population figures differs among countries/territories. In comparison with other places, statistics on birth and death are easily obtained in Hong Kong. However, it is not so easy with regard to residency and mobility. Since a resident is not required to state the time and purpose of staying in or being away from Hong Kong at arrival or departure, and the traffic flow is massive (over a hundreds of millions movements a year), data handling is of a rather complex nature and detailed study and analysis is required to enable reliable estimates to be compiled.

20. The social and economic development of Hong Kong is a continuous process. The C&SD is committed to updating and improving the statistical methods in accordance with the latest developments and will continue to provide high quality service for the public in all statistical domains.

21. Thank you.

End/Friday, August 11, 2000

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