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and Updated Forecasts for 2000 *********************************************** The Government releases today (May 26) the First Quarter Economic Report 2000, together with the preliminary figure on expenditure-based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2000. The Government Economist, Mr K Y Tang, described the economic situation in the first quarter of 2000 and provided updated GDP and price forecasts for the year. MAIN POINTS ----------- * The Hong Kong economy turned out a spectacular performance in the first quarter of 2000, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rendering a 14.3% growth in real terms over a year earlier. This was further up from the already pronounced growth of 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 1999 (revised upward from the earlier estimate of 8.7%), and was the fastest growth recorded since the third quarter of 1987. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, GDP leaped by 5.4% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000, also further up from the 3.8% rise in the fourth quarter of 1999. * The further acceleration in economic growth in the first quarter of this year was broadly based, characterised by a continued surge in external trade and a sharp pick-up in both consumption and investment demand, and amidst a more upbeat sentiment generally. * Exports of goods and services, having risen considerably in the fourth quarter of 1999, accentuated further to increases of 20.7% and 16.4% respectively in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, on the back of the global economic upswing and improved competitiveness for Hong Kong's output. * Locally, consumer spending also picked up distinctly further, to an 8.3% growth in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, as the employment situation turned more stable upon the sustained economic recovery. Investment spending resumed positive growth, at 5.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, after falling for six consecutive quarters, with the main impetus coming from the sharp rebound in machinery and equipment acquisition which more than offset the continued decline in building and construction output. Inventory build-up likewise gathered pace. * Labour market conditions improved appreciably. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell from 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 1999 to 5.5% in the first quarter of 2000. The underemployment rate stayed at 2.8% in both quarters. Over the same period, the proportion of persons unemployed for six months or more shrank from 32% to 28%, and the median duration of unemployment was reduced from 97 days to 90 days. * On the back of the very strong performance so far, the forecast growth rate in real terms of GDP for 2000 is revised upward to 6%, from the earlier forecast of 5%. * Looking ahead, exports of goods and services should continue to benefit from sustained demand from Europe and from within East Asia, even allowing for some moderation of demand from the United States later in the year. Continued robust growth in exports from the Mainland, coupled with improved competitiveness for the economy, should also lift Hong Kong's exports. * In the domestic sector, steadier employment and income stemming from the economic revival should lend better support to consumer spending. Notwithstanding the effect of higher interest cost, an improved business outlook along with the desire to raise operational efficiency should help underpin investment spending. * Certain downside risks however exist. Externally, the most apparent risk arises from a possible economic slow-down in the United States upon its interest rate hike and stock market consolidation, with likely ensuing repercussions on the rest of the world. The fluid situation across the Taiwan Strait also warrants monitoring. Locally, the upward pressure on interest rates and the slack asset markets could overshadow consumption and investment demand. Yet against these, the China-EU accord on China's accession to WTO and the passage of China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status by the US House of Representatives are latest positive developments. * On the price front, amidst the further adjustment in local costs, and even with some renewed price pressure from external sources, the Composite Consumer Price Index continued to fall, by an average of 4.9% in the first four months of 2000 over a year earlier. Having regard to the still sizeable decline so far, and the consideration that a turnaround in the price trend may only occur towards the end of the year, the forecast rate of change in the Composite CPI for 2000 as a whole is revised downward to -2.5%, from the earlier forecast of -1%. DETAILS ------- GDP for the first quarter of 2000 --------------------------------- The preliminary figure on expenditure-based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the Census and Statistics Department showed a further robust growth of 14.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier. This was the fastest growth recorded since the third quarter of 1987. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, GDP leaped by 5.4% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000, the fastest growth recorded since the first quarter of 1986 (Chart). 2. Also, the Census and Statistics Department revises the year-on-year rate of increase in real terms in GDP in the fourth quarter of 1999 upward from 8.7% to 9.2%, and the corresponding seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter increase upward from 3.4% to 3.8%. It follows that the growth rate in real terms of GDP for 1999 is lifted, from 2.9% to 3.0%. 3. The latest figures on GDP and its major components up to the first quarter of 2000, including the year-on-year changes in the original series and the quarter-to-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series, are presented in Tables 1 and 2. Developments in different segments of the economy in the first quarter of 2000 are described below. External trade -------------- 4. On visible trade, the growth in total exports of goods accelerated further to 20.7% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier. This was distinctly up from the 12.3% rise in the fourth quarter of 1999, and was the fastest growth recorded since the second quarter of 1992. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, total exports of goods accelerated to an increase of 7.4% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000, from a 3.4% rise in the fourth quarter of 1999. 5. Exports to the East Asian economies continued to be buoyed by the surge in their import demand upon the sustained regional economic recovery. Exports to the mainland of China (the Mainland) also leaped, in tandem with the Mainland's robust export performance and hence its imports of material inputs for export production. As to the conventional overseas markets, exports to the United States and the European Union picked up further on the back of their brisk import demand. In addition to the strong global demand, continued improvement in price competitiveness consequential to the on-going cost adjustment in the local economy and the rebound in the East Asian currencies was also relevant to the surge in Hong Kong's exports. 6. Within the total exports of goods, re-exports rose by 21.4% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, representing the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. It was a further acceleration from the already robust growth of 14.1% in the fourth quarter of 1999, and was the fastest growth recorded since the first quarter of 1993. Domestic exports rebounded sharply from the earlier declines, rising by 16.2% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier. This was significantly up from a meagre growth of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 1999, and was the fastest increase recorded since the third quarter of 1987. Yet taken together, the share of domestic exports in total exports still fell slightly, to 12% in the first quarter of 2000, from 13% in the same quarter in 1999. 7. Upon the strong re-export growth and the further pick-up in imports retained for local use, imports of goods accentuated markedly, rising by 22.9% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, after an 11.9% increase in the fourth quarter of 1999. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, imports rose by 8.0% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000, having increased by 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 1999. 8. With the growth in imports outpacing that in exports, the visible trade deficit rose to $24 billion or 6.6% of the value of imports in the first quarter of 2000. These were larger than the corresponding figures of $13 billion and 4.4% in the same quarter in 1999. The widened visible trade deficit was mainly associated with the greater intake of imports to meet domestic demand, amidst the sustained economic recovery. 9. On invisible trade, exports of services were likewise strong, rising by 16.4% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, further up from the 11.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 1999. While tourist arrivals had a further notable growth in the first quarter, offshore trading activities and exports of other trade-related services continued to surge in tandem with the strong merchandise trade performance. Exports of business services also improved further, amidst the resurgence in regional demand. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, exports of services reverted to an increase of 3.8% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000, from a 0.4% decline in the fourth quarter of 1999. 10. Imports of services still fell, by 1.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, having fallen by 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 1999. The continued decline was largely due to reduced per capita spending by Hong Kong residents on travel, along with a shift towards making more short-duration trips to Guangdong. Yet imports of various trade-related services picked up considerably, in line with the surge in merchandise trade. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, imports of services fell by 0.4% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000, following a 1.8% decline in the fourth quarter of 1999. 11. With exports of services rising whilst imports of services declining, the invisible trade surplus rose significantly further, to $28 billion in the first quarter of 2000, from $18 billion in the same quarter in 1999. Also, this more than offset the deficit in visible trade, giving a combined surplus (including an estimate of imports of gold for industrial use) of $3 billion in the first quarter of 2000, equivalent to 0.8% of the total value of imports of goods and services in that quarter. The corresponding figures in the same quarter in 1999 were $4 billion and 1.2%. Domestic demand --------------- 12. Local consumer spending strengthened distinctly further in the first quarter of 2000. Improved overall economic conditions, coupled with a more stable employment situation, had helped to resurrect consumers' propensity to spend. The prevalence of large price discounts at the retail outlets also stimulated consumer spending. The surge in spending in the first quarter was almost across-the-board, with spending on durable goods registering particularly sharp growth, and with spending on non-durable goods and foodstuffs also recording notable increases. Consumption of services likewise picked up. Overall, private consumption expenditure (PCE) had a significant growth of 8.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, up from a 4.4% increase in the fourth quarter of 1999. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, PCE also showed a much faster growth, at 5.4% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000, as against virtually no change in the fourth quarter of 1999. 13. Government consumption expenditure (GCE) reckoned on a national accounts basis grew by 4.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, having risen by 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 1999. The seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter GCE series showed an increase of 1.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000, after a 3.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 1999. 14. Overall investment spending in terms of gross domestic fixed capital formation, after undergoing a 10.4% decline in the fourth quarter of 1999, reverted to a growth of 5.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier. 15. Analysed by major component, expenditure on building and construction still had a decline of 9.9% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier. Public sector construction activity registered a drop in the first quarter, upon the completion or winding down of a number of major Government projects, even though work on the Priority Railway Projects intensified further. Yet the decline in private sector construction activity narrowed further, following the earlier rebound in building consents. Real estate developers' margin, as representing services rendered by developers, continued to fall, by 11.2% in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, on the back of a generally slack property market. On the other hand, expenditure on machinery and equipment revived sharply to a 25.2% rise in real terms in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, amidst renewed investment intentions as the business outlook improved. Of particular note was the strong intake of computer equipment for information technology and other business operations. 16. The momentum of inventory build-up, which began in the middle of 1999, intensified further in the first quarter of 2000, along with the strong pick-up in economic activity. The property market ------------------- 17. The market for residential property stayed quiet for most of the time in the first quarter of 2000, as potential buyers generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude in face of an abundant supply of flats in the pipeline and moderation in employment earnings over the past year thereby restraining demand. Also dampening the market was the successive increases in mortgage rate by 0.25 of a percentage point each on 14 February and 27 March as well as concern over further interest rate hike in the near term, although this was alleviated in part by the more favourable mortgage loan packages being offered by the banks amidst keener competition for mortgage business. There was some pick-up in purchases in the primary market in late March, stimulated by the intensive sales promotion programmes launched by property developers. But trading in the secondary market remained subdued. 18. Compared with the fourth quarter of 1999, flat prices on average edged up by 1% in the first quarter of 2000, while flat rentals on average fell slightly by 1%. Compared with their peak levels in the third quarter of 1997, flat prices and rentals were both substantially lower in the first quarter of 2000, by an average of 43% and 31% respectively. 19. On commercial property, the rental market for office space picked up in the first quarter of 2000, benefiting from a strong rebound in economic activity generally and a surge in demand for space from information technology firms and financial institutions in particular. The sales market for office space however remained inactive. Investor sentiment was still cautious despite the recent upturn in rental yield. As to shopping space, the leasing market rebounded somewhat in the first quarter of 2000, benefiting from a distinct recovery in local retail business. Yet the sales market for shopping space was still slack. The market for industrial property continued to be sluggish in overall terms in the first quarter of 2000. Yet there was some renewed demand in modern multi-purpose industrial premises, in line with the surge in external trade and also backed by the expansion of the information technology sector. The labour market ----------------- 20. Labour market conditions, though still slack in overall terms, improved appreciably in the more recent months. Stronger labour demand consequential to the economic revival was the main contributory factor. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, which had been trending downward since the middle of 1999, dropped to 5.5% in the first quarter of 2000. The underemployment rate, having been on a decline in the latter part of 1999, levelled off at 2.8% in the first quarter of 2000. 21. Comparing the first quarter of 2000 with a year earlier, total employment as enumerated from households went up by 3.6%, faster than the 2.4% increase in the fourth quarter of 1999. As to total labour force, the growth rate in the first quarter of 2000, at 2.8%, was virtually the same as that in the fourth quarter of 1999, yet much smaller than in the earlier quarters. With employment growth exceeding labour force growth, the balance between labour demand and labour supply improved noticeably further. This reversed the situation prevailing in the past two years when labour force growth persistently outpaced employment growth, and contributed directly to reduced unemployment. 22. Labour earnings remained on an easing trend in money terms. Comparing the fourth quarter of 1999 with a year earlier, overall earnings went down by 1% in money terms, same as the decrease in the third quarter. Yet after netting out a larger decline in consumer prices, there was still a distinct gain of 4% in real terms. Labour wages showed a broadly similar pattern of movement. Prices ------ 23. Consumer prices generally continued on a downtrend in the first quarter of 2000. The price decline spanned across most of the major commodity categories, as local retailers, under intensified competition in the retail market, continued to offer substantial price discounts on a wide range of goods and services. Domestic cost pressure was subdued, as labour cost continued to edge down and as property rental cost stayed at a relatively low level. Also, there was continued freeze in Government fees and in a number of public utility charges. On the other hand, price pressure from external sources firmed up somewhat in recent months, following a distinct rebound in world commodity prices, notably those of fuels, and a pick-up in inflation in some of the major supplier economies. Also relevant was the earlier strengthening in the Japanese yen. 24. The Composite Consumer Price Index went down by 5.1% in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier. This was larger than the 4.1% decrease in the fourth quarter of 1999. But the latter smaller decline was mainly attributable to a lower base of comparison in the fourth quarter of 1998 caused by the granting of rates rebate for that quarter. The CPI(A) was subjected to the same influence and likewise fell more in the first quarter of 2000, by 4.1% over a year earlier, as against a 3.0% fall in the fourth quarter of 1999. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, the Composite CPI was down by 1.3% in the first quarter of 2000, larger than the 0.7% decrease in the fourth quarter of 1999. The CPI(A) fell by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2000, much more than the 0.1% fall in the fourth quarter of 1999. A 50% cut in the rates payable for the third quarter of 1999, thereby rendering a lower base of comparison in that quarter, was the main factor accounting for the lesser decline in the fourth quarter of last year. 25. The GDP deflator, as a broad measure of overall inflation in the economy, fell by 7.1% in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, following a 6.6% decrease in the fourth quarter of 1999. Within this total, the domestic demand deflator went down by 7.0% in the first quarter of 2000 over a year earlier, as against a 4.9% decrease in the fourth quarter of 1999. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, the GDP deflator fell by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2000, after a decrease of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 1999. The financial sector -------------------- 26. The spot exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar moved within a narrow range of 7.774 to 7.786 during the first quarter of 2000, broadly in line with the movement of the Convertibility Undertaking Rate for the Aggregate Balance. On the back of ample liquidity in the local banking sector and sustained market confidence in the Hong Kong dollar, the differential between the Hong Kong dollar and US dollar interest rates continued to narrow. Also, the spread between the twelve-month forward rate and the spot rate narrowed further, with the twelve-month forward rate trading at a discount of 21 pips (each pip equivalent to HK$0.0001) to the spot rate at end-March 2000, compared with a premium of 430 pips at end-1999. 27. Under the linked exchange rate system, the movements of the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against other major currencies followed closely those of the US dollar. As the strengthening in some of the East Asian currencies during the first quarter of 2000 offset to a certain extent the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar against the European currencies and the Japanese yen, the trade-weighted Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Index of the Hong Kong dollar edged up only slightly, from 131.5 at end-1999 to 132.4 at end-March 2000. 28. Hong Kong dollar deposits fell by 1.0% during the first quarter of 2000, mainly attributable to lower Hong Kong dollar time deposit rates relative to their US dollar counterparts. On the other hand, Hong Kong dollar loans resumed positive growth after six consecutive quarters of decline, by 1.1% during the first quarter of 2000, in line with the sustained pick-up in economic activity. Thus the Hong Kong dollar loan-to-deposit ratio rose for the first time since the second quarter of 1998, from 91.3% at end-1999 to 93.2% at end-March 2000. 29. The local stock market quietened in January 2000, but turned active again in February on the back of a global rally in telecom and technology shares. Along with the release of strong economic data indicating a distinct pick-up in economic growth in the fourth quarter of 1999 and positive reception to the 2000-01 Budget, the Hang Seng Index attained a high of 17 951 on 8 March. The market then underwent some correction in mid-March, amidst concern over renewed tension across the Taiwan Strait and further interest rate hike in the United States. Prompted by the rally in the US stock market, the Hang Seng Index turned up again and reached a new high of 18 302 on 28 March. Then, the ensuing slides in both the US and Tokyo stock markets took a toll on the local stock market, causing the Hang Seng Index to fall back to 17 407 at end-March 2000. At that level, it was still 2.6% higher than at end-1999. (Affected by the further correction in the US stock market and anticipation for the sixth successive rise in US interest rates, the Hang Seng Index fell further in April and most of May. It stood at 13 921 on 25 May.) Updated GDP and price forecasts for 2000 as a whole --------------------------------------------------- 30. The global economic environment remains favourable in overall terms. The US economy continues to display profound growth along with strong consumer demand, yet the successive interest rate hike by a total of 1.75 percentage points since the middle of last year may dampen growth later this year. The European economies are on a broad upswing. Within East Asia, the Mainland economy has picked up in growth in the first quarter, with its external trade on a spectacular surge. The Japanese economy showed fresh signs of recovery after a relapse in the second half of last year. As to the earlier crisis-hit economies in the region, the strong recovery over the course of last year has carried over well into this year. In the local economy, a more upbeat sentiment for trade, consumption and investment that has been re-activated since the latter part of last year should lend support to further robust growth this year. 31. Following the regular practice, the GDP and price forecasts for 2000 have been reviewed by individual components in the light of the latest outurn. The updated forecasts are presented in Table 3. 32. Externally, the forecast growth rate in real terms of total exports of goods in 2000 is revised upward to around 11%, from around 8% in the earlier forecast. This revision mainly reflects the much stronger-than-expected export growth in the first quarter. Yet the latest forecast has also factored in a possible slow-down in growth momentum in the latter part of this year, on account of both a higher base of comparison towards the end of last year and a less intense demand envisaged for the US market upon its interest rate hike. Within the total exports of goods, domestic exports are now forecast to grow by 5% in real terms in 2000, in contrast to the earlier forecast of a 4% decline, and re-exports are now forecast to grow by 11.5% in real terms in 2000, up from the earlier forecast of a 10% rise. 33. Retained imports of goods have staged a distinct pick-up in the first quarter and should continue to be supported by enhanced domestic demand and greater inventory build-up in the coming months. Hence the forecast growth rate in real terms of retained imports of goods in 2000 is revised considerably upward, to around 12%, from 6% in the earlier forecast. Together with the upward revision in the forecast growth rate of re-exports, imports of goods are now forecast to increase also by around 12% in real terms in 2000, up from the increase of around 9% forecast earlier. 34. On exports of services, the performance in the first quarter was generally in line with earlier expectations, and hence the forecast of an 8% growth in real terms in 2000 is kept unchanged in the present update. Looking ahead, inbound tourism should continue to hold up well. Offshore trading activities and exports of other trade-related services should rise further, in tandem with the growth in merchandise trade. On the other hand, imports of services are forecast to grow more mildly, by 3% in real terms in 2000, down from 5% in the earlier forecast. This revision has taken into account an on-going shift in the travel pattern of Hong Kong residents towards making more short-duration trips to Guangdong. 35. In the domestic sector, the forecast growth rate in real terms of private consumption expenditure is revised upward to 3.5% in 2000, from 2.5% in the earlier forecast. This is on the back of a further leap in local consumer spending in the first quarter, reflecting the return of a more upbeat consumer sentiment in the more recent months. Local consumer spending in the months ahead should have support from steadier employment and income. But the recent consolidation in the asset markets upon the interest rate hike may pose some restraint. 36. The forecast growth rate in real terms of government consumption expenditure in 2000 is kept unchanged at 2.5%. 37. Gross domestic fixed capital formation, as representing overall investment spending in the economy, is now forecast to grow by around 8% in real terms in 2000, up from the increase of around 6% forecast earlier. 38. Within the overall investment spending, expenditure on building and construction is now forecast to grow by 4% in 2000, down from the earlier forecast of around 6% growth. The continued slack in the first quarter largely led to this revision. Nevertheless, a number of prominent new projects in the private sector have commenced work by the turn of the year, which should render greater output in due course. Output from projects in the public sector can be expected to attain stronger growth in the near future, notably from further stepping up of the Priority Railway Projects and intensive site formation work for the Hong Kong Disneyland. Also, work on the Public Housing Programme will continue to be substantial. 39. Having regard to the modest private sector building output recorded so far, real estate developers' margin is now forecast to increase by 1% in real terms in 2000, down from the 4% increase in the earlier forecast. 40. The forecast growth rate in real terms of expenditure on machinery and equipment in 2000 is lifted considerably, from around 6% to around 12%. This is mainly in recognition of the sharp pick-up in capital equipment intake in the first quarter. Improved business outlook and an on-going efficiency drive should help underpin investment spending, even though the higher interest cost may pose some restraint. 41. Overall, the forecast growth rate in real terms of GDP for 2000 is raised to 6%, from the earlier forecast of 5%. 42. Certain downside risks however exist. Externally, the most apparent risk arises from a possible economic slow-down in the United States upon its interest rate hike and stock market consolidation, with likely ensuing repercussions on the rest of the world. The fluid situation across the Taiwan Strait also warrants monitoring. Locally, the upward pressure on interest rates and the slack asset markets could overshadow consumption and investment demand. Yet against these, the China-EU accord on China's accession to WTO and the passage of China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status by the US House of Representatives are latest positive developments. 43. While a spot forecast of the GDP growth rate is customarily provided, it actually embraces a range of possible forecasting discrepancies. Computation of the mean absolute error of the discrepancies between the forecast and the subsequent outturn over each of the past ten years shows that this averages at around 0.5 of a percentage point in the May update of the GDP forecast. This is shown in Table 4. For comparison, the forecasts made by a selection of international organisations and local analysts are depicted in Table 5. IMF, ADB and most of the local analysts have revised their GDP growth forecasts for Hong Kong in 2000 upward over the past few months. For the private sector analysts, their latest forecasts of the GDP growth rate in real terms disclosed since April 2000 range from 4.9% to 8%, averaging at around 6%. 44. On the price front, with the process of local cost/price adjustments still bearing effect, labour wages have kept soft while property rentals have stayed at relatively low levels in recent months. Competition in the local retail market remains intensive, and price discounts are prevalent in many retail outlets. Thus, even with some renewed price pressure from external sources, the Composite CPI continued to fall, by an average of 4.9% in the first four months of 2000 over a year earlier. Having regard to the still sizeable decline so far, and the consideration that a turnaround in the price trend may only occur towards the end of the year, the forecast rate of change in the Composite CPI for 2000 as a whole is revised downward to -2.5%, from the earlier forecast of -1%. The forecast rate of change in the GDP deflator for 2000 is likewise lowered, from -1.5% to -3%. (The First Quarter Economic Report 2000 is now on sale at the Government Publications Centre on Ground Floor, Low Block, Queensway Government Offices, at $66 a copy.) (The latest GDP figures are published in the quarterly report of Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2000, which will shortly be on sale also at the Queensway Government Publications Centre, at $12 per copy.)
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