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Following is the speech by the Acting Chief Secretary for Administration, Mr. Michael Suen, on the additional number of persons eligible for right of abode at the House Committee Meeting of the Legislative Council today (Thursday):
Madam President,
As a result of the judgment made by the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) on 29 January concerning the Certificate of Entitlement (C of E) issue, the number of persons eligible for the right of abode (ROA) in the HKSAR has increased tremendously. According to the mid-term survey of the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD), the number of persons in the Mainland eligible for ROA in Hong Kong arising from the CFA judgment reaches 1 675 000. Of them, 692 000 are eligible persons of the first generation while 983 000 are eligible persons of the second generation. Members have been briefed on the details by the Secretary for Security in LegCo last Wednesday.
The above figures have aroused much discussion in our community. I would like to stress that the survey has been conducted by C&SD in an objective and professional manner. Yet, we have to admit that the accuracy of its findings will inevitably be affected by a number of technical factors. In fact, any statistical survey itself involves presumptions and projections. This explains why statistical results could not give rise to a full picture of the whole situation. There are invariably a number of factors which will cause overestimation or underestimation of the total number of eligible persons. Nevertheless, we consider that the figure of 1 675 000 derived from C&SD's objective survey is the best reference available for making assessment at this stage. Although the survey does not cover two types of eligible persons who cannot be contacted (i.e. children of Hong Kong people who have passed away or who are currently residing abroad), the data available is adequate for the purpose of assessing the services required. Further information on the findings of the survey as provided by the Commissioner for Census and Statistics, Mr. Frederick HO, has been included in the paper submitted to Members today.
Over the past week, the relevant policy bureaux have, based on the findings of the survey, conducted a preliminary assessment of the impact of increased number of eligible persons on infrastructure, social services and employment. The assessment covers housing, education, medical services, social welfare, employment situation, employment services, vocational training and re-training, transport and environment. These are the areas which, we believe, will be directly affected by the influx of new arrivals. The purpose of today's meeting is to announce the findings of the preliminary assessment so as to give Members some idea of the actual impact of the increased population on Hong Kong. Details are set out in the paper tabled before Members today. My colleagues will later elaborate on the issue that falls within their respective purview. Before that, I wish to brief Members on the main points in the paper.
Our assessment is based on the following three points:
(1) The CFA has ruled that the HKSAR Government must process applications for C of E within a reasonable period of time, and that the process must not be delayed by administrative measures. For this reason, during the course of assessment, we consider it reasonable to assume that the first generation of new arrivals will be absorbed in three years' time, and that the two generations be absorbed within ten years.
(2) According to the survey conducted by C&SD, 80% of those interviewed think that their children in the Mainland will choose to settle in Hong Kong. Immigration Department's experiences reveal that the majority of people who have ROA would choose to come to Hong Kong. As people who have ROA are entitled to choose to settle in Hong Kong, the HKSAR Government should assess the demand for various services and facilities on the assumption that all eligible persons will exercise such a right. It is our responsibility to make comprehensive forecasts and plan ahead.
(3) Besides, our assessment has excluded Mainland residents who are already eligible for ROA in Hong Kong before the CFA judgment. Presuming that the present One-way Permit daily quota of 150 will remain unchanged, and considering that we have already planned the facilities and services required for these new arrivals and their families, we think that the assessment should not cover these people.
The assessment of the facilities and services in the above areas is not comprehensive. The increase in the demand arising from increased population for the facilities and services currently enjoyed by Hong Kong people and the service commitments made by the Government, such as municipal, recreational, sports and arts facilities, as well as public services ranging from district affairs to security, has not been taken into account. A systemic, accurate and comprehensive assessment will amount to a project as enormous as town planning, which takes much more time to complete.
The paper indicates that to meet the needs of the eligible persons of the first and second generations alone in respect of the major areas identified in the paper, our taxpayers will have to shoulder a capital expenditure of $710 billion in ten years, while the recurrent expenditure of various services will reach $33 billion annually by the tenth year. For comparison, the total capital expenditure of the HKSAR Government for 1998-99 is $55 billion and the recurrent expenditure is $166.9 billion.
Whether this huge financial burden can be borne by increasing revenue and savings calls for further examination. However, the bigger problem lies in the large demand for land. It is estimated that to meet the basic needs of the additional population alone, we shall need 1 277 hectares of land, mostly for public housing, but other infrastructure such as road and community facilities are equally essential for modern city life. The Secretary for Planning, Environment and Lands, based on the current planning criteria in Hong Kong, estimates that a total of 6 000 hectares of land will be needed to accommodate the 1 675 000 additional population, which is almost 5 times the size of Chek Lap Kok Airport. In the last decade, the Government was only able to provide about 200 hectares of land on average each year. How we are going to meet such an enormous demand is indeed a problem. Besides, land development of a large scale will certainly give rise to numerous planning and environmental problems. This is the hard reality that the people and the Government of HKSAR will have to face together.
I note that views on the accuracy of our statistics have been reported in today's newspapers. As I have explained just now, there are technical constraints, but I still think that the statistics have formed an adequate basis for our assessment of the service implications. I have also mentioned just now that the service implications are tremendous. Even if the assessment results were to be considerably discounted, we would still be talking about an exceptionally enormous burden. It is doubtful as to whether we could take it. There is no easy solution. Nevertheless, finding a solution is not our subject today. What we are here for today is to let you all know how big the burden actually is. We will discuss other problems later.
Now I would like to invite the bureau secretaries to report their respective assessment of the needs for education, employment, medical services, social welfare, environment and housing.
End/Thursday, May 6, 1999
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