Table 3

1998 GDP and price forecasts by selected private sector analysts

Forecast year-on-year rate of change in real terms :

Organisation	Date of release		GDP (%)	Private consumption expenditure (%)	Gross domestic fixed capital formation (%)	Total exports of goods (%)	Exports of services (%)	Consumer price inflation (%)		Reference source
Hong Kong Bank	97	Dec	4.0	4.0	7.9	4.2	3.2	5.3		Economic Report, Dec 97.
	98	Feb	3.0	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by Express 24.2.98.
		Jun/Jul	-2.0	-3.2	-0.6	0.7	-3.9	3.0		Economic Report, Jun/Jul 98.
		Aug	-3.0	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by Ming Pao 15.8.98.
Hang Seng Bank	97	Oct	4.0	3.3	8.0	3.2	5.0	5.5		Economic Monthly, Oct 97.
	98	Jul	-3.0	-5.0	-6.3	1.5	-2.5	3.5		Economic Monthly, Jul 98.
Standard Chartered Bank	97	Dec	4.0	3.6	8.6	5.0	2.5	5.0		Viewpoint (No.10), Dec 97.
	98	Aug	-3.2	-	-	-	-	3.5		Asian Quarterly, Aug 98.
Bank of China	97	Dec	4.2	3.5	7.0	4.7	2.5	5.5		Survey No.1, 1998.
	98	Mar	3.2	2.8	2.1	4.7	2.5	4.0		Survey No.2, 1998.
		Jul	-1.0	-	-	-	-	-		Survey No.3, 1998.
Bank of East Asia	98	Jan	3.9	2.2	9.2	4.2	2.0	5.2		Economic Analysis, Jan 98.
		Jul	-1.0	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by Sing Tao Daily, 1.8.98.
		Aug	-3.5 to -3.7	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by HKEJ, 28.8.98.
Merrill Lynch	97	Dec	2.5	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by HKEJ, 18.12.97.
	98	Mar	2.5	3.0	5.5	-	-	-		Reported by SCMP, 9.3.98.
		Jul	-3.5	-6.0	-2.5	-	-	3.0		Reported by SCMP, 13.7.98.
Morgan Stanley	98	Feb	3.2	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by Express, 10.2.98.
		May	2.0	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by SCMP, 13.5.98.
		Aug	-2.7	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by HKEJ, 13.8.98.
Goldman Sachs Asia	98	Jan	2.0	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by HKEJ, 22.1.98.
		Jul	-2.0	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by HKET, 15.7.98.
		Aug	-4.6	-	-	-	-	-		Reported by Ming Pao, 8.8.98.