Table 2

Official GDP forecast, actual outturn and forecast error for Hong Kong

		Official forecast of GDP growth rate for the year					Actual outturn (in terms of the first full estimate for the reference year released at around the middle of the following year)		Forecast error
		Budget	May	Aug	Nov				Budget	May	Aug	Nov
		round	round	round	round				round	round	round	round
		(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)		(%)		(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
1988		5.0	N.A.	6.0	N.A.		7.3		-2.3	N.A.	-1.3	N.A.
1989		6.0	6.0	5.0	3.0		2.3		3.7	3.7	2.7	0.7
1990		3.0	3.0	2.5	2.3		2.8		0.2	0.2	-0.3	-0.5
1991		3.5	3.5	4.0	4.0		3.9		-0.4	-0.4	0.1	0.1
1992		5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0		5.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
1993		5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5		5.5		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
1994		5.5	5.5	5.7	5.7		5.5		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2
1995		5.5	5.5	5.0	5.0		4.6		0.9	0.9	0.4	0.4
1996		5.0	5.0	4.7	4.7		4.7		0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0
1997		5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5		5.3		0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
							Mean absolute error		0.8	0.6	0.5	0.2